7 May 2020: Pandemic Math
Updated: May 12, 2020
FriendlyNeighborhood Scientist here: Let's clear up some numbers.
100% = Of people can get COVID19
50% = Of virus is blocked by cloth masks.
95% = Of virus is blocked with N95 masks.
100% = Of employees should wear masks at work, whether in an office or amongst the public.
Up to possibly 30% = False Negatives on live virus tests. (Research is being conducted continuously to both improve tests and discover trends in false negative results).
2% = US average death rate - national, all states combined, same as global death rate. State by state in US may be higher or lower.
2,000 - Average national US deaths PER DAY currently.
3,000 - Estimated national US deaths PER DAY with loosening restrictions ( as restrictions loosen even further, this can go up).
150,000 - New positive national US cases PER DAY (if 2% is death rate and 3,000 deaths are expected).
10+ feet = Actual minimum effective distance between people, not 6 feet. The virus hangs in the air longer than expected.
2 = Number of not living together people that can gather truly safely if socially distant and masked. Any more than this and the odds start going up of weakening your vigilance for social distance and maintaining hygiene (meaning: you're gonna wanna touch or be near someone!). That said, follow precautions if among more people.
6 weeks = New findings show the virus can be shed by persons who have had the disease and recovered, meaning you can still infect others even if you feel well for as much as six additional weeks.
New (12 May): 50% = Of 20 year-olds are asymptomatic (no symptoms) AND CAN PASS THE VIRUS TO OTHERS up to 6 WEEKS after contracting it (according to new data). So, reign in those guys. They are potential spreaders.
Nothing has changed. We are all still at risk. But if everyone stays aware and respectful, we can continue to reduce the spread and engage with each other.
It is unlikely we will be rid of this virus any time soon. Don't be afraid. Be smart.